Frequently Asked Questions, Answers, and Instructions
- What exactly is ODDS High Accuracy: Monthlys?
- Do you email me the recommendations?
- Upon what trading methodology is ODDS High Accuracy: Monthlys based?
- Are you in the market all the time, or are there lengthy dead periods?
- How do you identify your trades?
- What does an option spread recommendation look like?
- If I get filled on the spread recommendation, what do I do next?
- If I do not get filled on the spread recommendation, what do I do next?
- What type of exit instructions do you give for spread trades?
- What is the typical duration of a trade?
- How many option ETF trades are typically open at any one time?
- Is there a refund policy?
- Is there a performance guarantee, and if so, how does it work?
- Can I implement the ODDS High Accuracy: Monthlys recommendations using an online brokerage?
- Are there any qualifications required?
- Does this require margin?
- How much money do I need to use ODDS High Accuracy: Monthlys?
- What if I still have questions regarding the ODDS High Accuracy: Monthlys service?
- What do I do if there is overlap in the strike price of an old trade with the strike price in a new trade?
A. It is a weekly premium recommendation service. The recommendations are posted to a private, secure web site every Friday morning. [We trade on Friday's to take advantage of the "weekend effect" in options.] Recommendations will be tracked in an open position web page with up to date follow-up instructions. We will also email "Special Alerts" that will provide important updates in between the weekly recommendations, if conditions warrant.
A. email is convenient, its reliability is not 100%. Instead, we post the recommendations to a private, secure web site. If there ever is a need to provide you with an interim update, we will post the update to the web site. So it's best for you to be in the habit of checking the web site every day for any updates.
A. The methodology is based almost entirely on the high probability index option trading system I've been teaching for over two decades.
The details of this particular method were taught from start to finish in my Options Wizardry From A to Z course, which was first offered to the public in 1998. Over the years I added several minor enhancements to make the trading process even easier.
And my basic high probability method has a multi-decade history of success. Winning percentages over 90% tell how well the results have been.
A. As stated previously, except in rare circumstances, we expect to have a position in the market at all times. This means that, as we exit one position, we will likely be entering a new position. This is easily handled, as long as you pay detailed attention to the instructions. That means being prepared and making sure you understand what it is that you need to do ahead of time.
As noted above, we don't anticipate that there would be lengthy periods where we're idle. If, however, the potential profits from doing these option trades is so low that the profits wouldn't even pay your commissions, we will elect to stand aside. Always log in to see all instructions or look for changes every trading day.
Q. How do you identify your trades?
A. It's actually a relatively simple process, once you know what to do. Basically, we use the exact high probability method I've taught in my courses for over 20 years. Although the calculations are easy, they can be tedious. And for newcomers, they can seem overwhelming.
Every Friday morning (if there are holidays, such as Christmas and Thanksgiving, that schedule may change) I'll give you the exact trade to take, along with the exact entry price.
Q. What does an option spread recommendation look like?
A. Here's an example of an options ETF trade recommendation:
At the top is the date. Below that are the table headings. Let’s go left to right. First is the ticker for the underlying asset. An underlying asset is the thing upon which the options are based. In almost all instances, the asset is going to the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (ticker: SPY). After that comes the ETF price. Next are the two factors each trade needs to meet before being considered: Return Potential and Volatility Escalation. If either of these are yellow or red, we will not issue a recommendation.
Last but not least is the trade itself. This is a 2-way spread, otherwise known as an put credit spread. There are 2 components to the spread. We are selling a put and and buying a further out-of-the-money put. Pay attention to the expiration date which will always be a monthly expiration, plus the net credit. The net credit is very important. You want to be filled on the trade but only if you can get the minimum net credit or better. DO NOT accept less than the minimum net credit shown. Place all orders as 'limit orders'.
A. One of the nice things about this service is that I do all of the work for you. If a new recommendation is filled, I will always follow up with exit instructions that you can give your broker.
I post follow-up instructions to a private, secure Open Positions page that you can access any time you wish. Here is what the Open Position page would have looked like the morning after the recommendation was issued:
At the top, you'll find the date. Below that is the table with the open positions. We display the date, the ETF ticker symbol, the recommendation (including the recommended credit), the fill price, the closing price of the spread the prior trading day, the closing price of the ETF, and finally any instructions. Notice the new trade given says 'pending'. Once the trade is confirmed as filled, the fill price will be posted where you see 'pending'.
If there is ever a situation in between our regularly scheduled weekly update, I will notify you by posting new complete instructions telling you exactly what trades to exit and what trades to enter. Just remember to log in EVERY trading day to see if any instructions have changed.
A.The instructions are posted each Friday morning. If you do not get filled at the minimum net credit limit price shown, continue to try to get filled at the recommended net credit limit until the next recommendation comes out, unless the Instructions in the Open Positions page say to do otherwise. Be sure to check the Open Position page every trading morning for any new updates.
A. I always tell people that it's important to treat trading like a business -- and I do! The important thing to remember about exiting is that I'm always looking out for you.
Each time we need to exit a position prior to expiration, I will post the instructions on the Open Positions page no later than 8:45 a.m. ET, to be sure you are aware that a position needs to be closed down. That said, I urge you to get into the habit of logging in daily to see if updated instructions have been provided.
A. We look for option trades whose expiration date is anywhere from two to seven weeks. That does not mean we remain in the trade that long. Sometimes we close out a position prior to expiration if the profits are too juicy to pass up.
Q. Is there a refund policy or performance guarantee?
A. Yes! ODDS High Accuracy Monthlys performance measurements and billing cycle are measured using the options industry’s monthly expiration calendar. A copy of that calendar can be found here.
Your initial $1 payment gives you access to all trade recommendations from the moment your subscription is accepted up till a regular monthly expiration (usually the third Friday of the month).
Once that initial period has past, payment is dependent on the performance of the trade recommendations issued to subscribers on the private, secure web site.
If the trades produced by the system for an expiration that are kept in the model portfolio are not profitable at options expiration, no fees will be assessed for that expiration.
However, if the model portfolio shows a cumulative net profit for an expiration (that is, the sum of the percent returns for a particular expiration month is positive before fees and commissions), you will be charged $99 on that expiration. The charge will be made to the card you used when you first enrolled.
To avoid this charge, you must cancel your subscription prior to 5:00 pm ET the day before options expiration for that month.
A.Yes, most online brokers now give you the capability to enter all the necessary information to implement the trades correctly. Just make sure your online brokerage provides you the ability to enter your order with the correct data (i.e.: 4-way/credit spread or iron condor, which market and symbols), emphasize the "net credit" amount (never accept less than the minimum credit), and place as a "limit" order good for the day only. If you are not filled that day, continue to log in to check instructions, and if nothing is said to the contrary, continue to try for a fill at the exact parameters given each day until the next new trade is given. Do not continue after that.
A. There are no qualifications required to subscribe. If you want to subscribe in order to learn, that's fine with us. But if you want to trade the recommendations, the trading level required for the service is usually a Level 4. That's the level required to trade the credit spreads, which nearly all of our customers qualify for. Trading the Volatility ETF portion of the service requires the same suitability as investing in an ETF.
A.We don't have a minimum account size recommendation. As stated above, there are no requirements for you to trade the recommendations. You can subscribe to this service just to learn. If, however, you do trade, you'll need to open an account. One thing to be aware of for those of you contemplating trading with a small account: commissions may eat up a disproportionate share of your profits.
A. One of the benefits of the ODDS High Accuracy: Monthlys service is that I have a highly trained staff to help you with any questions you have about how to act on my advice and recommendations. They don't just answer the phones to take address corrections. They also trade. I encourage you to take advantage of this service by calling the Technical Support Hotline at 859-224-4424, or by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org. The support staff will help you with any additional questions that you may have. We do ask, however, that you take the time to go through ALL of the Frequently Asked Questions & Instructions first. Most of the time you will find your questions answered there.
A.Because we have multiple trades that expire at one expiration, this does happen, but not very often and you don't need to worry. You don't need to take the new trade in a different account. If there is overlap in the strike prices, you will be closing one leg of an existing position and adding a new leg to the position. For example: If I had a trade where I sold the 250 Put and bought the 247 Put for a credit of 0.25. My reward would be $25 per contract and my risk would be $275 for a 9% profit. Now I get a new trade that asks me to sell the 253 Put and buy the 250 Put at the same expiration for a credit of $25. Instead of having 2 positions in my account I will have only one, but my risk and reward will be identical to my potential of doing both trades in different accounts. Some brokers have you place the order specifying buy to open and sell to open or buy to close and sell to close. If your broker does this you may need to be careful how you enter the order. In this situation, I would place the order to buy to close the 250 put that I sold and sell the 253 put to open for a net credit of 0.25. My previous trade was a 3-point wide credit spread. After this order is filled, I would have one 6-point wide credit spread instead of two 3-point wide credit spreads. I would have collected $50 of credit per contract total and my risk would be $550, exactly as if I had done the trades separately in different accounts.
If I have not addressed a question that you may have, please email my staff at email@example.com
Fishback Management and Research, Inc. (FMR), its principles and employees reserve the right to, and indeed do, trade stocks, mutual funds, options and futures for their own accounts. FMR, its principals and employees will not knowingly trade in advance of the general dissemination of trading ideas and recommendations. There is, however, a possibility that when trading for these proprietary accounts, orders may be entered, which are opposite or otherwise different from the trades and positions described herein. This may occur as a result of the use of different trading systems, trading with a different degree of leverage, or testing of new trading systems, among other reasons. The results of any such trading are confidential and are not available for inspection.
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