//I think this is misguided //

Don FishbackGeneral Investing, VolatilityLeave a Comment

I like Vanguard. But this is ridiculous. Vanguard Won’t Let Investors Trade These Popular—but Controversial—Products Vanguard Group will no longer allow individual investors to make new trades on certain investments that seek to magnify bets, pouring cold water on strategies that became popular after the last financial crisis. Starting January 22, customers won’t be able to purchase so-called leveraged or … Read More


//Be Careful What You Wish For //

Don FishbackStock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

Money managers that hoped for more volatility so as to improve their chances of beating the market appear to have been severely disappointed when the volatility finally arrived. As this headline from Bloomberg notes, “Stock Pickers Wanted Volatility. It Made Their Performance Worse“. That’s why I am pretty stoked that our Three Factor System beat the market once again! This … Read More


//How Volatile Was 2018 Really? //

Don FishbackOptions, Stock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

This chart shows the average move size for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index back as far as 1901 for the Dow and 1928 for the S&P. As you can pretty clearly see, 2018 was about average, although the “mean” was skewed by a few years where the moves were gigantic. But even when you compare 2018 … Read More


//ODDS Online Indicator is Validated by Independent Research //

Don FishbackOptions, Probability, Products, VolatilityLeave a Comment

The OptionMetrics Research Conference was held a couple of months ago. And there was one particular paper that really caught my attention. That’s because it covered the exact topic that I have been investigating the past several months: the Implied Borrow Rate. Without diving into the details too much, option prices tend to follow something called put-call parity. That is, … Read More


//End of Easy Money Leads to Higher Volatility //

Don FishbackOptions, VolatilityLeave a Comment

This article from Reuters talks about how the end of easy money will bring more jolts to the markets. Recent market ‘jolt’ will be first of many as easy money era ends “Recent sharp selloffs across global financial markets are probably the first of many, as investors adjust to a world of tighter monetary conditions and the threat of economic … Read More