As my long-term clients have known since way back in 1997 (when I first revealed my super-simple market timing system), I am a staunch believer in the power of the yield curve. The version I watch is very different than the one that has been getting a lot of news lately. That’s because I focus on commercial rates as opposed … Read More
Those bearish individuals put their money where their mouth was. BAML measures ETF inflows and outflows, and as you can see, investors sucked a record amount of money from equity funds and ETFs like $SPY.
If this is a supply-related decline, not a problem. But if it’s a demand issue, then we should all be nervous. Because when an economically sensitive commodity declines this much, it’s usually a sign that economies across the globe are slowing down pretty rapidly. This is an important part of our 3 Easy Factors method especially relating to tickers like … Read More
Powell finally gets it. Hopefully not too late. The yield curve was narrowing rapidly these past few weeks, as short rates continued to climb in anticipation that Powell meant what he said in early October about future rate hikes being needed, while long rates reacted to the huge decline in commodity prices. Those declines signaled the potential for DEflation, although … Read More