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//Be Careful What You Wish For //

Don FishbackStock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

Money managers that hoped for more volatility so as to improve their chances of beating the market appear to have been severely disappointed when the volatility finally arrived. As this headline from Bloomberg notes, “Stock Pickers Wanted Volatility. It Made Their Performance Worse“. That’s why I am pretty stoked that our Three Factor System beat the market once again! This … Read More

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//“Don’t Fight the Fed” //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

In the immortal words of Marty Zweig, “Don’t Fight the Fed”. And the markets didn’t, which is why oil, lumber, interest rates and stocks all cratered to Powell’s tin-eared comment that further tightening in 2019 was on “automatic pilot”. But today, it’s a different tune. You have no idea how glad I am that he listened. Commodity prices are climbing … Read More

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//Mr. Powell Gets a Surprise //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

This awesome chart (courtesy of MetaStock) showing the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the G10. These indices compare actual data to Bloomberg Survey expectations. They have Economic Surprise indices for several different economic zones. As you can see, the data is coming in softer than expected. That is, the global economy is not as strong as previously thought, which is … Read More

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//Lumber Liquidation //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

It’s not just oil that got hammered last year. Just think what has to be going on in the economy for a price collapse of that magnitude to have happened. Now think about the Fed and their insistence that rates need to go HIGHER to keep inflation from getting out of hand. If you want to know why the market … Read More

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//How Volatile Was 2018 Really? //

Don FishbackOptions, Stock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

This chart shows the average move size for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index back as far as 1901 for the Dow and 1928 for the S&P. As you can pretty clearly see, 2018 was about average, although the “mean” was skewed by a few years where the moves were gigantic. But even when you compare 2018 … Read More

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//Panic Selling //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

Here is an indicator I developed back in 2016 designed to detect panic selling that is so severe, it creates a crescendo wave. Here is the criteria: 4 out of the past 4 days must have seen a drop in the S&P 500 of at least 1%. The most recent close brought the S&P 500 down to the lowest level … Read More

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//Performance of Stocks Experiencing Buybacks //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

Yesterday, I wrote about equity flows and mentioned how corporations were buying back massive amounts of stock. I want to expand on that a bit. First, announced buybacks have set a record in 2018, eclipsing the $1 trillion mark. What I wanted to do is see how the stocks experiencing buybacks performed compared to the general market. That is, do … Read More

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//Record Money Flows as Individuals Abandon Single Stocks, While Corporations Buy Big Time //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

Huge shift from single stocks to ETFs last week according to data from BAML. Private clients sold more stocks last week than any week since March 2009. Tech stocks dominated the sell list. Most of the money shifted from individual tech stocks into blended ETFs. Meanwhile, buybacks by corporations highlighted the buying, with the 9th largest week in the entire … Read More

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//Worst December Start Since 1931? Not quite //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

It’s been a rough start to the month (unless you’re a subscriber to our Three Easy Factors service). As bad as it’s been, there have been some misleading stats bandied about by click-bait headline grabbers that make it seem worse than it is. Several news outlets are proclaiming that the stock market’s performance in December is the worst since 1931. … Read More

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//Fed Tightening During Market Weakness //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

For the past 35 years, it’s pretty rare for the Fed to tighten when the US stock market is as weak as it has been lately (S&P 500 is down -13% from its highest close 3 months ago). “How rare”, you ask? That’s what this chart shows. The shaded areas indicate periods where the market was down more than -13% … Read More