Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

Interesting post from the WSJ on how momentum in the first half of the year carries over to the second half when the first half is exceptionally strong. What I find interesting is how our Three Pillars service was able to capture all of what turned out to be the 10th largest 1st half gain ever.

Copper Plunge Has Me Nervous

Don FishbackEconomy, Stock MarketLeave a Comment

Here’s an interesting article about the plunge in copper, and how it might be signaling future economic weakness. Those of you familiar with our simple three factor system know that one of the factors is commodity prices. When commodity prices fall sharply – not just fall, but plunge – it’s reason to be nervous because it signals that demand is … Read More

Emerging Markets Are Underperforming Again

Don FishbackStock Market

Earlier we wrote about emerging markets and how the companies that construct the indexes were going to increase the Chinese component. Now this: “Regulatory filings show that hedge funds in the first quarter more than doubled their investments in the three largest exchange-traded funds that buy stocks in emerging markets. Too bad.” It’s ironic because I was noticing how the … Read More

Are You Unknowingly Betting On China During A Trade War?

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

This from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal: “Investors are about to buy billions of dollars in mainland Chinese stocks even as trade tensions whipsaw markets. “Two of the largest global index providers, MSCI and FTSE Russell, will soon begin ratcheting up exposure to companies listed on China’s domestic exchanges. The increases will force asset managers to purchase shares of Chinese companies … Read More

Strange Things Happening in Europe

Don FishbackStock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

Two strange things are going on in Europe. As the chart below shows, there has been a big increase in the quantity of government bonds that have a negative yield. The big bear market that hit US stocks in the 4th quarter of last year has had a huge impact on rates both in the US, and especially in Europe. … Read More

Jamie Dimon Likes Straddles

Don FishbackProbability, Stock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

OK, maybe he doesn’t really “like” straddles. But what he does say implies that the market conditions going forward will have characteristics that are conducive to long straddles. Dimon Sees Recent Volatility as Harbinger of Things to Come A few of the reasons given include what we just wrote about a few days ago: declining liquidity. A key nugget in … Read More

This Time is Different?

Don FishbackProducts, Stock MarketLeave a Comment

If you’ve been a member of our Three Easy Factors service (now renamed to Three Pillars), you’ve probably taken notice of the yield curve lately. Well, some people are still not convinced it works, even though they were among those who got burned the last time they said it no longer worked… when in fact, the last time it worked … Read More


Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

The IPO pipeline is bursting, what with Levi’s and Lyft having gone public, and several other household names on deck. But there was another IPO statistic that caught my eye. And unless you were looking for it, you probably didn’t notice. January 2019 saw an unusually low number of US-based IPOs: just one. I’ve posted a chart showing the S&P … Read More