Now that the CBOE Volatility Index and option prices in general are high again, I thought it would be appropriate to share this clip from one of our ODDS Online coaching sessions where I explain how to find a strike price in the “sweet spot” between theory and reality using our unique Measure Don’t Model Chart.
We’ve been working on a new artificial intelligence engine for several months now. And while the programming of feedforward networks, recurrent Long-Term-Short-Term networks and generative adversarial networks may sound super cool and wonky, the real challenge has been cleaning noisy data. With over 100 billion datapoints in our database, there are bound to be some errors. And knowing what’s good … Read More
The Wall Street Journal’s headline says that options have considerably more risk than buying stock. Meanwhile the CBOE headline points to research that shows options-based strategies generate higher incomes with less volatility. They can’t both be right… can they?
OK, these two articles are so relevant I took bits of both headlines and put them together. Now I try to make sure that articles I link to are not behind a paywall. But sometimes, the articles are so compelling, I have to let you know about them anyway. And hopefully, you can find a way to read them. The … Read More
Long gone are the days when the exchanges made the bulk of their money from trading. These days, the exchanges make the bulk of their profits from data. And my guess is that many of you have no idea how expensive data is. Yes, you get data from your broker. But it’s probably price information, maybe volume, and some publicly available … Read More
If you’re into probability — that would be anyone who has ODDS in their name like I do — this is a thought-provoking chart from a Bloomberg article this morning. I’ve created charts similar to this in the past using my trusty spreadsheets. What they’ve done that is different from the normal bell curve is that instead of using the … Read More
A couple of articles on momentum: This one about Blackrock and how it is sticking with momentum. This one is an academic paper about various anomalies, including momentum, that finds anomalies become less profitable once the anomaly becomes widely recognized.
Here’s an interesting post about volatility of volatility. Volatility of Volatility as an Edge I’ve done some research myself on the subject and can confirm the results, which appear to be isolated to the performance of calls. That is, call options on stocks where the historical volatility of the one-month at-the-money implied volatility is low (1 in the chart) perform … Read More
I’m old enough to remember the TV show “Love American Style“. But that’s not the American style I’m talking about. I’m referencing the exercise characteristics of options. American style options can be exercised at any time. European style options, on the other hand, can only be exercised at expiration. In most instances, it’s not an issue. But when options go … Read More
This chart shows the average move size for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index back as far as 1901 for the Dow and 1928 for the S&P. As you can pretty clearly see, 2018 was about average, although the “mean” was skewed by a few years where the moves were gigantic. But even when you compare 2018 … Read More