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//Strange Things Happening in Europe //

Don FishbackStock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

Two strange things are going on in Europe. As the chart below shows, there has been a big increase in the quantity of government bonds that have a negative yield. The big bear market that hit US stocks in the 4th quarter of last year has had a huge impact on rates both in the US, and especially in Europe. … Read More

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//Hedge Funds Are Shorting the VIX at a Rate Never Seen Before //

Don FishbackVolatilityLeave a Comment

There is an article on Bloomberg.com talking about the gigantic short position large speculators have in the VIX futures. There is one important fact that this brings up: It’s near impossible to determine what this actually means, given the fact that nobody knows the rest of the story. That is, are these outright bets that VIX is going to fall? … Read More

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//Behavioral Economics in the Real World //

Don FishbackEconomy, General InvestingLeave a Comment

Here’s an interesting discussion on MSNBC regarding behavioral economics and perceptions related to their tax refunds for 2018. Basically, the anchor and his technology correspondent both support and acknowledge that most people saved a ton of money by paying lower taxes. But because the amount withheld shrank – meaning people got to keep more of their money – refunds are … Read More

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//Jamie Dimon Likes Straddles //

Don FishbackProbability, Stock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

OK, maybe he doesn’t really “like” straddles. But what he does say implies that the market conditions going forward will have characteristics that are conducive to long straddles. Dimon Sees Recent Volatility as Harbinger of Things to Come A few of the reasons given include what we just wrote about a few days ago: declining liquidity. A key nugget in … Read More

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//This Time is Different? //

Don FishbackProducts, Stock MarketLeave a Comment

If you’ve been a member of our Three Easy Factors service (now renamed to Three Pillars), you’ve probably taken notice of the yield curve lately. Well, some people are still not convinced it works, even though they were among those who got burned the last time they said it no longer worked… when in fact, the last time it worked … Read More

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//IPOs //

Don FishbackStock MarketLeave a Comment

The IPO pipeline is bursting, what with Levi’s and Lyft having gone public, and several other household names on deck. But there was another IPO statistic that caught my eye. And unless you were looking for it, you probably didn’t notice. January 2019 saw an unusually low number of US-based IPOs: just one. I’ve posted a chart showing the S&P … Read More

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//Declining Liquidity //

Don FishbackStock Market, VolatilityLeave a Comment

This article is behind a paywall. But the headline provides the key point: Liquidity of the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts is shrinking – hit hard after the two volatility shocks in 2018. Liquidity provides a cushion for those times when the market goes haywire… up or down. When that cushion disappears, volatility has a tendency to be higher than normal. … Read More

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//Volatility Low Everywhere //

Don FishbackGeneral Investing, VolatilityLeave a Comment

On Monday the 18th, in our ODDS Community we were posting and talking about how low volatility was everywhere. We also talked about the right strategy for low market volatility in the community and our ODDS Online coaching class. If you missed the conversations, it’s not too late to check it out. Our strategy for exploiting low volatility earns profits … Read More