Archive for April, 2010

Oh Good, Another Piece of Crap Volatility Derivative Exchange-Traded-Something-or-Other to Avoid

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

Jefferies is launching a new volatility product.  Instead of the notorious ETNs that were launched last year by Barclays iPath, this product is an ETF.  That’s a slight improvement, because with an ETF, you won’t be a creditor of the issuing company.  With the VIX Futures ETNs, you’re basically an unsecured creditor of Barclays.

Besides that, however, the ETF is still based on the same piece of junk S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index.  That’s not to say that S&P, Barclays or Jefferies are creating an index that, by design, is supposed to fail.  It’s just that, as long as back-month VIX futures are substantially higher than front-month VIX futures, the roll factor will cause the index to drift downward, even though VIX itself holds steady.

Here’s a graph of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index compared to the VIX Index itself.

 IMAGE VIXETF Small Oh Good, Another Piece of Crap Volatility Derivative Exchange Traded Something or Other to Avoid

Year to date, the VIX is down -12%, while the SPVXSTR -42%.  Ugh!

Because the new ETF is designed to track the index that plunged (the futures index), and not the VIX itself, an investment in this new ETF would pretty much have been a disaster.  And it will be as long as the implied volatility in the back months is higher than the volatility in the front months.

– Don

P.S. – Interestingly, the SEC filing contains all kinds of information on ticker symbols for the ETF, and for the intraday indexes (which are not provided by the various quote platforms at the present time).  The filing conveniently omits the ticker symbol for the end-of-day index value that is currently available on Bloomberg and Reuters.  Instead, the filing states that S&P will publish the daily closing level of the VIX Futures Index.

Economic Impact of Imperfect Models

Monday, April 19th, 2010

Not only do imperfect models have a deleterious effect on financial securities and their derivatives by understating risk, it seems as though they may have impacted decisions on air transportation by overstating risk.

The acknowledgement that the computer models were flawed is likely to provide ammunition for critics who believe that authorities have shown excessive caution.

Ironic that the flaws in the financial models caused authorities to have an insufficient amount of caution.  And I love this comment from a Luthansa spokesperson:

“The mathematics and the reality … have no correlation.”

– Don

The BusinessWeekization of Bloomberg.com

Monday, April 19th, 2010

Bloomberg.com updated the look of their web site.  It no longer looks like an inexpensive version of a Bloomberg terminial.  Instead, it looks more like the old Business Week web site.

I don’t like it.  And I don’t understand why Bloomberg would take one of the best brands in investing (the Bloomberg terminal has default setting of a black background with orange text) and make it look like the failure that Business Week became.  It would be like Tiffany’s saying they want to start using a new shade of blue.

On the other hand, maybe my preference for the old Bloomberg is due me liking a horrible design because it makes me feel smarter.

– Don