Just a quick update.

The last time GDP grew this much in one quarter was the 4th quarter in 2003.  Employment during that period grew 345,000 jobs.

On the other hand, the recession that preceded that 2003 growth spurt – the recession that officially lasted from March 2001 to November 2001 – ended with non-farm payrolls at 130,901,000.  At the end of that GDP boom during the 4th quarter of 2003, non-farm payrolls stood at 130,270,000.  That’s a HUGE DECLINE.  In other words, once the recession officially ended, the economy continued to lose a lot of jobs.  So a rebound in GDP with continuing job losses is not unprecedented.

In fact, the exact same thing happened after the 1990 recession too.

Those two recessions, however, are unique.  For all other post-WWII recessions, job losses stopped and job gains came within a month or two preceding or immediately after the end of the recession.

– Don

This morning’s GDP report provoked a question.  And after all the reading I’ve done, it doesn’t seem that anyone is asking it, at least not yet.

What does it mean when GDP grows at 5.7% and the economy still sheds over 200,000 jobs?  Is this the typical way a recession ends — GDP grows first while joblessness still increases?

I’ll do a little digging and report back.  I’m sure the answer isn’t too hard to find.

– Don